Thursday, April 5, 2012

2012 Top Prospects #1: Travis d'Arnaud

Name: Travis d’Arnaud
Position: Catcher
Acquired: 1st round (2007), from Philadelphia
Opening Day age: 23
Height/weight: 6’2”/195 lbs
Best/worst tool: Bat/speed
Risk factor: Low
ETA: 2012

Scouting Report

Recently ranked by Keith Law as the number 6 prospect in all of baseball, Travis d’Arnaud has all the tools required to be one of the better catchers in the game. His game starts on offense, where both his bat and power tools project to be plus. His power is generated through quick hands, exceptional bat speed, and a compact swing. The potential is there for further growth in that department, however, as d’Arnaud swings primarily with his upper half, failing to fully utilize his leg strength. He isn’t afraid to use all fields, which is an approach he began to utilize only recently after previously attempting to pull everything over the fence. Plate discipline still remains a bit of an issue. d’Arnaud made big strides defensively in 2011 while working with former big league catcher and current Fisher Cats manager Sal Fasano. His arm strength is another potential plus tool, but inconsistent footwork has limited the accuracy of this throws to second. Even so, Eastern League managers named him the league’s best defensive catcher in 2011. Another big improvement to his game was his leadership and receiving skills, with d’Arnaud has showing an ability to keep his pitchers calm and comfortable even in less than ideal situations. His worst tool is his speed, which is less than surprising for a catcher. Even so, he’s athletic for the position, and shouldn’t clog the bases until he begins to age and slow down further. More than anything else, health has been holding d’Arnaud back from unlocking his potential. He’s shown a tendency towards back injuries, which can be a big problem for someone whose job is to squat for three hours every day. The Blue Jays will have to hope that continued strength and conditioning of his core will prevent any future soreness.

2011 Statistics and Analysis

424 AB, .311/.371/.542 (.914 OPS), 33 2B, 1 3B, 21 HR, 78 RBI, 4 SB, 33/100 BB/K

d’Arnaud had an utterly dominant 2011 season with Double-A New Hampshire, culminating with the EL Most Valuable Player award as well as the Eastern League Championship. His 231 ISO is outstanding for any player, let alone a catcher, and was fuelled by his exceptional extra base hit percentage of 41.7%. It was truly a breakout year for d’Arnaud offensively, as his 21 home runs bested his previous career high by 8 (13 in 2009) in 58 fewer at-bats. The season wasn’t without flaws, however, as d’Arnaud’s 21.5% strikeout rate was higher than you’d like to see from a 22 year old top prospect in Double-A, especially given his very average 7.1% walk rate. His defense skills still need some refinement as well, as he caught only 27% of potential base stealers and allowed 13 passed balls.

Expected 2012 Assignment: Triple-A Las Vegas

Future Outlook

The Toronto Blue Jays catching position will be one to watch over the next few years. d’Arnaud is the Blue Jays top prospect and has been rated in the top 10 in all of baseball by some establishments, but there’s not necessarily a clear path to the proverbial throne. J.P. Arencibia – a former top prospect in his own right – is currently the main man squatting behind the plate, and by all accounts is very well received by the pitching staff. Despite the 23 home runs, his 2011 performance wasn’t the most spectacular, but one must remember he was a rookie playing the most difficult position in baseball. Another mediocre season could force the organization to hand the reins to a rookie catcher for the second time in three years. On the other hand, if Arencibia goes off and establishes himself as a 2-3+ WAR player, the organization will have a monumental decision on their hands. Both players have vast amounts of value behind the plate, so a defensive switch would not be maximizing assets. Given his leadership in the clubhouse and his relationship with the pitchers, I believe in such a scenario would result in d’Arnaud changing uniforms, not Arencibia. “Too much quality catching” is a problem no team would ever complain about, and it will be very interesting to see how things play out in Toronto. We won’t have to wait long, as d’Arnaud could make his debut as early as this summer.

Perfect World Projection: All Star catcher, middle of the lineup hitter, Silver Slugger award winner.