Tuesday, October 25, 2011

Early thoughts on the reign of President Farrell


John Farrell recently finished his first year as the Toronto Blue Jays bench boss, and while it was his first season as a Major League manager, his previous experience as both a player and a coach allowed him ample preparation for the responsibilities he would face.

Farrell was drafted in the 2nd round of the 1984 draft, and played for four teams across parts of ten major league seasons. He retired after the 1996 season in which he pitched for the Tigers, and immediately moved into the coaching ranks. Farrell joined his alma mater, Oklahoma State, where he served as an Assistant Coach and Pitching / Recruiting Coordinator. Farrell worked in the college ranks for five years, after which he joined the Cleveland Indians as their Director of Player Development -- an extremely important position in every organization. He held that position for five years, with the highlight being the 2003 season in which the Indians were ranked as the number one farm system by Baseball America -- a farm that included future All Stars Brandon Phillips, Victor Martinez, Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Travis Hafner. Farrell rejoined the coaching ranks in 2007, this time in the Major Leagues. Terry Francona and the Boston Red Sox hired him as their pitching coach, a role he served for four seasons before interviewing for -- and receiving -- the job as the Toronto Blue Jays manager.

This brings us back to the 2011 season, John Farrell's first in Toronto, and first as a manager. His decisions from the dugout were a mixed bag, and to say anything else would be a bold faced lie. He diverted from the Cito Gaston mantra of sitting and waiting for something to happen, but went too far the other way. It may have been nerves. It may have been an attempt to put his stamp on the team. Whatever it was, April was an interesting month to watch. Farrell called for more aggressiveness on the basepaths in one month than we saw during the entire 2010 season. Some of it was genius, with the double steal on Opening Day immediately coming to mind. Other times, not so much. A problem quickly arose with the aggressiveness -- Blue Jays base runners were becoming a distraction not only to opposing pitchers, but also to their own hitters at the plate. Far too often Rajai Davis or Corey Patterson would be dancing around at first or second base while Jose Bautista was standing at the plate. When Bautista is in the batters box, every runner is in scoring position, there is no need for such activity on the basepaths. Farrell was eventually forced to move Davis to the bottom of the lineup, so he could still be used as a base stealing threat without taking away from the potency of the heart of the lineup.

Farrell dialed back the aggressiveness as the season wore on, but a new issue arose late in the summer -- the sacrifice bunt. The sacrifice bunt has a place in baseball, but its niche of effectiveness is a lot narrower than most managers seem to comprehend. The Twitter hashtag of #FarrellBall quickly became a popular internet meme, as John Farrell became seemingly infatuated with the sacrifice bunt. Toronto could be down multiple runs, already have a runner on second base, have an out recorded in the inning, or be in the heart of the lineup, and Farrell would still call for the sacrifice. If any of those conditions are met, calling for a sacrifice bunt lowers your chances of scoring the run. You only get 27 outs, and throwing one away to move a runner up one base is rarely an intelligent move.

Most baseball people will acknowledge that in-game decisions are a very small portion of a manager's responsibilities, and while John Farrell's moves were at times highly questionable, it's hard to argue against what he did for the other 21 hours every day. With Roy Halladay, Vernon Wells, and Shawn Marcum all playing for new clubs, a leadership void was created within the clubhouse. In addition to the loss of the aformentioned "high character" players, General Manager Alex Anthopolous brought in players with supposed "character concerns" -- Yunel Escobar, Brett Lawrie, and Colby Rasmus. Despite this, for the first time in years, there were no public disagreements between the manager and his players, issues we dealt with far too frequently during the John Gibbons and Cito Gaston regimes. Yunel Escobar toned down some of the flash, instead focusing on the fundamentals and having an excellent comeback season. Brett Lawrie handled his demotion during Spring Training in a professional manner, and was a media darling after his summer promotion to Toronto. Colby Rasmus -- a player Tony LaRussa couldn't stand -- meshed well with the team and coaching staff, and made no ruckus whatsoever during the final months. To ignore or discredit the impact John Farrell had on these (and other) players when reviewing or analyzing his debut season would be both unfair and ignorant. Managers aren't just guys who call for stolen bases and intentional walks, they're responsible for managing the egos and personalities of 25 grown men -- all day and every day -- for seven months. That is forgotten far too often.

It has been reported that the Red Sox -- Farrell's former employer, who recently moved on from manager Terry Francona -- have a desire to bring John Farrell back to Boston as their next manager. WEEI.com, a Boston Sports news outlet, has gone as far as to say that Farrell "is the man they should target". While it's doubtful (and with Alex Anthopolous' policy change today, seemingly improbable) that John Farrell would try and get out of his contract with the Blue Jays to rejoin Boston, the reports are yet another feather in the cap of Toronto's skipper. In their first season post-Farrell, Boston's clubhouse self destructed. Players would drink booze and order food to the clubhouse during games they weren't involved in, with some reports even suggesting the players drank alcohol in the dugout (though such rumors have been vehemently denied). While it's impossible to know the full extent of the meltdown, it's clear that John Farrell was an important cog in the Boston Red Sox wheel, and without him they have a severe lack of leadership.

Last offseason, Alex Anthopolous undertook an exhaustive search for Toronto's next manager, and he appears to have struck gold once again. Managers can learn and improve their in-game tactics with experience, but leadership is an inherent ability that a person does or doesn't have. John Farrell is a leader. John Farrell has gathered knowledge of the game through his jobs in both the professional and amateur ranks. With more experience, John Farrell has the potential to be one of the best all-around managers in Major League Baseball, which fits perfectly with Alex Anthopolous' desire to have All Stars at every position -- even in the dugout.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Making the Grade: The Outfield


The fourth and final segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's outfielders. Beyond Jose Bautista (who even split time at third base), the outfield saw a lot of new faces throughout the year, with the end of season outfield looking vastly different than the Opening Day version. This list will be for outfielders who finished the season with the major league club, or played in 40 games with the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield

RF Jose Bautista (31)
513 AB, .302/.447/.608 (1.056 OPS), 24 2B, 2 3B, 43 HR, 103 RBI, 9 SB, 132/111 BB/K

I wrote a post in June describing how Jose Bautista is the Toronto Blue Jays, and while his final slash line is slightly less impressive than his midseason slash line, nothing has changed. Bautista is the premier offensive player in Major League Baseball. While the home runs dropped off from his franchise record 54 in 2010, he still led baseball in the category once again, while putting together a much better all around season. American League pitchers and managers took notice, intentionally walking him 24 times (132 total) after doing so only twice (100 total) last season. Prior to the season I predicted a .272/.391/.563 (.954 OPS) slash line with 39 home runs and thought myself bold. Joey Bats exceeded even the most demanding expectations.

Grade: A+

RF Adam Loewen (27)
32 AB, .188/.297/.313 (.610 OPS), 1 2B, 0 3B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0 SB, 3/13 BB/K

Loewen put together a strong season with Triple-A Las Vegas, earing himself a September callup. While he displayed a nice swing and impressive power, I was a little confused by his plate approach. He often seemed more inclined to work the count than to swing, even when the pitch was very hittable. As a former pitcher he obviously wants to try and think along with the opposing pitcher to discover the pitch sequence and get an edge, but such an approach put him in far too many two-strike counts. Loewen would do well for himself to show a bit more aggression early in the count.

Grade: C+

CF Colby Rasmus (25)
471 AB, .224/.298/.391 (.688 OPS), 24 2B, 6 3B, 14 HR, 53 RBI, 5 SB, 50/116 BB/K

While the sky is the limit for Rasmus, he didn't look great in his brief stint with Toronto late in the season. Across 35 games (133 AB), Rasmus hit only .173/.201/.316 with an ugly 5/39 BB/K ratio. The struggles are understandable, as he was moving to the American League for the first time and was in the middle of the most stressful season of his life. Given the disrespect LaRussa shows Rasmus in the media, it's difficult to even fathom the venom that was spewed behind closed doors. With a fresh start Rasmus should be much better in 2012, but his late season struggles left a bit of a sour taste in the mouths of Blue Jays fans.

Grade: C-

CF Rajai Davis (31)
320 AB, .238/.273/.350 (.623 OPS), 21 2B, 6 3B, 1 HR, 29 RBI, 34 SB, 15/63 BB/K

Rajai's season got off to a poor start with a pulled hamstring in the season opener, and he was never able to fully get on track before eventually tearing his hamstring in August. Despite the injury and offensive struggles, we did learn where Davis can be effective moving forward. The leadoff experiment failed miserably (.483 OPS in 24 games hitting 1st), but Davis did show some comfort hitting in the back of the lineup (.720 OPS in 17 games hitting 9th). He hit lefties extremely well (.288/.367/.463), but was a black hole against righties (.221/.239/.313). This translates into an obvious 2012 platoon in left field, splitting time with whoever of the two lefties (Thames, Snider) makes the team out of spring training.

Grade: C

LF Eric Thames (24)
362 AB, .262/.313/.456 (.769 OPS), 24 2B, 5 3B, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 2 SB, 23/88 BB/K

Despite putting together an impressive spring, Thames was sent to Triple-A in April. He crushed PCL pitching with a 1.033 OPS in 53 games, earning a promotion to Toronto that he would not relinquish. While there was a stretch in late August in which he looked positively awful, Thames still had a solid debut season. His bat speed and power are unquestionable, but his plate coverage is poor with a lot of holes in his swing. He probably won't ever be a full time player. His defense came as advertised, which is not a good thing. According to FanGraphs, Thames was the 5th worst defender (minimum 350 PA) in left field, behind only Raul Ibanez, Logan Morrison, Michael Morse, and Juan Pierre.

Grade: B+

LF Travis Snider (23)
187 AB, .225/.269/.348 (.616 OPS), 14 2B, 0 3B, 3 HR, 30 RBI, 9 SB, 11/56 BB/K

If Brandon Morrow was the biggest disappointment on the pitching side, Travis Snider takes the cake for the hitters. Snider was expected to step in as the full time left fielder and work his way into the heart of the Blue Jays lineup. That didn't happen. Snider was demoted to the minors in late April to "simplify his swing". After a couple months on the farm, Snider rejoined the big club during the summer. He got off to a hot start, demolishing the Red Sox in his first series back. Things went downhill after that, culminating in a demotion back to Triple-A as a roster spot was needed for the phenom, Brett Lawrie. Snider was expected to return as a September callup, but a wrist injury ended his season prematurely. Many Blue Jays fans have soured on Travis, but he's still only 23 and deserves another chance to prove his worth. His tools are miles ahead of Eric Thames' (power included), and I have no doubt he can win the left field job next season if given a fair opportunity. With that being said, 2011 was a colossal failure.

Grade: F

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

Making the Grade: The Infield


The third segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's infielders. While shortstop and catcher remained constant, the remaining three infield positions were in flux throughout the season due to injuries, struggles, callups, and trades. This list will be for infielders who finished the season with the major league club, or played in 50 games with the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

C JP Arencibia (25)
443 AB, .219/.282/.438 (.720 OPS), 20 2B, 4 3B, 23 HR, 78 RBI, 1 SB, 36/133 BB/K

Arencibia had a mixed bag of a first season in Toronto. He displayed his highly regarded power (23 home runs) and displayed it consistently (between 3 and 5 home runs every month). His plate approach was surprisingly better than expected, as his 36 walks were good for a 7.4% walk rate. His biggest issue, at least offensively, was making contact. Arencibia hit only .219 with a 27.4% strikeout rate. His BABIP was a below average .255, and his 15.7 LD% suggests it wasn't just bad luck that killed his average. Arencibia will need to make strides with the bat to be an above average catcher, but his rookie season was promising.

Grade: B-

C Jose Molina (36)
171 AB, .281/.342/.415 (.757 OPS), 12 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 15 RBI, 2 SB, 15/44 BB/K

Molina had an exceptional offensive season (for a backup catcher). His defense, however, took a dramatic step back from 2010. While he is still one of the best in the game at framing pitches and has a great arm, Molina's fielding behind the plate fell off noticably. He gave up more passed balls (8) than he had in any previous season despite playing his 2nd fewest innings since 2003. Whether it's because of old legs, lack of effort on a non-contending team, or something else, I have no idea. But it could be a cause for concern.

Grade: A-

1B Adam Lind (28)
499 AB, .251/.295/.439 (.734 OPS), 16 2B, 0 3B, 26 HR, 87 RBI, 1 SB, 32/107 BB/K

With Aaron Hill gone, Adam Lind has taken over the title as the most frustrating hitter to watch on the roster. For the second straight season, Lind hit 20+ home runs. However, for the second straight season, Lind had a sub-.300 OBP. That's not going to cut it as a first baseman, particularly in the AL East. Lind's struggles were magnified by the fact he hit cleanup for much of the season, and Jose Bautista's .447 OBP created a vast number of opportunities for Lind in key situations. His 2009 season is quickly becoming a distant memory, and it might be time to move on.

Grade: C-

1B Edwin Encarnacion (28)
481 AB, .272/.334/.453 (.787 OPS), 36 2B, 0 3B, 17 HR, 55 RBI, 8 SB, 43/77 BB/K

What started off as a nightmare blossomed into a mid-career revival. After a dismal 2010 season, many Blue Jays fans (myself included) had a very short leash for Encarnacion as a regular in the lineup. Encarnacion struggled horrificly during April and May, but slowly turned his season around during June. He was one of Toronto's best hitters in the 2nd half, hitting .291/.382/.504 (.887 OPS) after the All Star Break. He likely did enough to have his contract option for 2012 picked up, and should have either the first base or designated hitter spot locked up next spring.

Grade: B+

2B Kelly Johnson (29)
545 AB, .222/.304/.413 (.717 OPS)
27 2B, 7 3B, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 16 SB, 60/163 BB/K

Acquired from the Diamondbacks after the non-waiver trade deadline, Johnson established himself as the favorite for the 2012 second base job in Toronto by hitting .270/.364/.417 (.781 OPS) in 115 AB after the trade. While he has noticable flaws in his game -- particularly with making contact -- Johnson has more than enough talent and tools to be an above average starting second baseman. After watching Aaron Hill flail helplessly at the plate for nearly two seasons, Johnson is a welcome change.

Grade: B

3B Brett Lawrie (21)
150 AB, .293/.373/.580 (.953 OPS)
8 2B, 4 3B, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 7 SB, 16/31 BB/K

Brett Lawrie did everything expected of him and more during the 2011 season. He laid waste to the Pacific Coast League before suffering a broken hand in late May that delayed his promotion to the major leagues. After being sidelined for nearly two months plus a short rehab stint, Lawrie was called up to Toronto where he absolutely crushed the ball. His wOBA ranked 2nd on the team behind Jose Bautista, and after a few initial struggles he proved to be an above average defensive third baseman.

Grade: A+

3B Mark Teahen (30)
160 AB, .200/.273/.300 (.573 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 4 HR, 14 RBI, 0 SB, 16/45 BB/K

There's really nothing positive to say about Mark Teahen's season other than that he helped bring Colby Rasmus to Toronto. He's been a negative WAR player for 4 years running, and -- thanks to Kenny Williams -- he's still owed 5.5M next season. He's a poor fielder at basically every position and has no utility on the basepaths. It would be wise to eat the contract during the offseason to clear up space on the 25 and 40 man rosters.

Grade: F

SS Yunel Escobar (28)
513 AB, .290/.369/.413 (.782 OPS)
24 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 48 RBI, 3 SB, 61/70 BB/K

Behind Jose Bautista, Escobar was the best hitter on the Blue Jays throughout the course of the season. After a subpar 2010, Escobar rediscovered the swing that made him one of the best hitters in Atlanta during 2008 and 2009 seasons. In addition to swinging a mean bat, Escobar removed some of the flash from his defensive game and focused on the fundamentals, which increased the quality of his throws across the diamond. Financially, his resurgence earned him a team-friendly contract extension.

Grade: A

SS Mike McCoy (30)
197 AB, .198/.291/.269 (.561 OPS), 8 2B, 0 3B, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 12 SB, 25/41 BB/K

Mike McCoy may have earned more Air Miles on his credit card this year than any other player in baseball, as he had more Toronto-to-Vegas flights (or vice versa) during the season than I care to count. Despite that, he still managed to play in 80 games with Toronto this year. McCoy had an opportunity to prove himself, particularly with an extended look in September while Escobar was injured, but he did not really impress me. He's solid with the glove and on the basepaths, but doesn't look like he'll ever hit enough to deserve 200 ABs in a season again. The failure out of the leadoff spot is as much John Farrell's fault as it is McCoy's.

Grade: D

Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Trade Target: Yonder Alonso

Name: Yonder Alonso
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 24
Contract: 1 year, 1M remaining
Service time: ~1 year

Scouting Report:

Alonso is a thick (6'2", 240 lbs) first baseman who was drafted 7th overall by the Cincinnati Reds in the 2008 draft. While he isn't the same gargantuan size, Alonso has an Adam Dunn look to his body. A career .293/.370/.466 hitter across 2+ minor league seasons, Alonso has the potential for 60 hit and power tools with a strong plate approach. He has shown some weakness to left handed pitching in the past, but Alonso actually hit lefties better than righties with Triple-A Louisville this season. While it's disappointing that his 17 home runs between 446 Triple-A and MLB at-bats were a personal best, Alonso pounded out a lot of doubles which leaves room for improvement. While his body looks mature, he's still growing as a hitter and more power should come down the road. Offensively, his ceiling is likely a .300/25 hitter, which is more than acceptable for a first baseman. Alonso has below average speed and will likely never improve, but he does have the potential to be a solid defensive first baseman.

2011 Statistics:

88 AB, .330/.398/.545 (.943 OPS), 4 2B, 0 3B, 5 HR, 15 RBI, 0 SB, 10/21 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

Similar to the reasons touched on in the Joey Votto post, Adam Lind is not the answer at first base long term, and Toronto needs to begin looking for alternatives. While Alonso lacks the upside of Votto, he is a much cheaper alternative, both in terms of salary and trade cost. Alonso signed a 5 year, 4.55M (including 2M signing bonus) major league contract after being drafted in 2008, and while he has only 1 year worth 1M remaining on that contract, he would still be under team control through 2016. He could likely be acquired for only one of Toronto's MLB ready arms, whereas Votto would cost possibly 3 of Toronto's top 5 prospects. He could hit 2nd, 5th, or 6th in the Blue Jays lineup immediately, with the possibility of moving to 4th if he develops as hoped.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

While the Reds have tried playing him at third base and in left field, Alonso's speed clearly limits him to first base. With Joey Votto in place, Cincinnati has a substantial decision to make this offseason. The first option would be to rebuild, trading Votto for a bounty of prospects and moving Alonso to first base full time. The other option would be to push all-in while they still have Votto under contract. If they choose the second option, it would be wise to capitalize on moving Alonso while he is still young, cheap, and projectable, as opposed to wasting him as a bench bat. An Alonso trade could result in the acquisition of a starting pitcher who could help them for the next two years on their quest for a championship.

Tuesday, October 11, 2011

Trade Target: Joey Votto

Name: Joey Votto
Position: First Base
Team: Cincinnati Reds
2012 Opening Day age: 28
Contract: 2 years, 26.5M remaining
Service time: 4+ years

Scouting Report:

In his first four years, Votto has compiled 4.0, 4.7, 7.3, and 6.9 WAR seasons, earning himself the NL MVP in 2010. Votto's success at the plate is achieved primarily through two traits. First, his plate discipline is extremely refined, and his advanced approach allows him to consistently get into favorable hitter counts and spray the ball all over the field. Second, Votto has a quiet stance and a quick and level swing, which generates a ton of line drives. Votto's 2011 batted ball statistics (27.5% LD, 39.1% GB, 33.4% FB) differ greatly from those of the notorious upper cutter Prince Fielder (19.8% LD, 43.1% GB, 37.1% FB). A high line drive percentage like Votto's will result in sustainably high batting averages despite what appear to be fluky BABIP numbers. Votto has plus power, but is more of a 25-30 home run hitter with a ton of doubles than a true 35-40 home run slugger, despite what his 2010 totals suggest. He is a solid to above average defender and an average runner.

2011 Statistics:

599 AB, .309/.416/.531 (.947 OPS), 40 2B, 3 3B, 29 HR, 103 RBI, 8 SB, 110/129 BB/K

Why Toronto would want him:

The list of reasons why Toronto (or anyone) would want Joey Votto is bordering on endless. He is in his prime and is one of the best players in the game, while under contract for two more years. Toronto has a glaring hole at first base with Adam Lind having exposed his ineptitude at the plate. Votto would be a monstrous upgrade for the club, as he could immediately join Jose Bautista to create the best 3-4 in baseball and push Toronto into serious playoff contention. Additionally, Joey Votto is a Toronto native, and his acquisition would create a buzz around the Blue Jays that hasn't been heard since the World Series years. The contract extension would be expensive, but Toronto could easily afford it, especially when considering the marketing opportunities.

Why Cincinnati might trade him:

It's extremely farfetched that the Reds would trade Votto, because he truly is one of the best players in baseball and is only 28 years old. If Cincinnati does make him available, it's likely because of money. Votto is owed 9.5M in 2012 and 17M in 2013, after which he becomes a free agent. He has stated numerous times in the past that he is not interested in a contract extension that would buy out his free agent years, which suggests he has no interest in staying in Cincinnati longterm. Given that he'll likely command an Adrian Gonzalez-esque contract, it's doubtful Cincinnati could retain him even if he wanted to stay. The Reds have a ready made replacement for Votto in former 7th overall pick Yonder Alonso. If they were to move him, they would likely demand a package that would upgrade their pitching staff with young, controllable talent.

Thursday, October 6, 2011

Making the Grade: The Bullpen


The second segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's bullpen pitchers. Due to injuries, callups, and roster moves to and from the rotation, the bullpen saw a plethora of different faces throughout the year. This list will be for pitchers who finished the season in the major league bullpen, or who made at least 10 relief appearances for the club throughout the duration of the season.

Part I Making the Grade: The Starters
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

RHP Frank Francisco (32)
1-4, 50.2 IP, 49 H, 20 ER, 7 HR, 18 BB, 53 K
3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 9.41 K/9, 0.78 GO/AO

Francisco took a lot of grief during his first year in Toronto, but that has to be at least partially attributed to the success of the man he was traded for (Napoli). In terms of xFIP, Francisco performed extremely similar to how he did in his last 3 seasons with Texas, so it's hard to say he performed below expectations. Frank's biggest problem in Toronto came during the spring when he was reluctant to follow the team's throwing program, which led to an early season injury and massive struggles upon his return.

Grade: B

RHP Casey Janssen (30)
6-0, 55.2 IP, 47 H, 14 ER, 2 HR, 14 BB, 53 K
2.26 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 3.79 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.38 GO/AO

Casey Janssen was easily the best Blue Jays relief pitcher from the beginning to the end of the year, which makes it even more disheartening that he was the odd man out when a pitcher needed to be sent to Triple-A to make room on the roster. Thankfully, Janssen is now out of minor league options, so a repeat will not occur next year. With Francisco and Rauch possibly on the outs, Janssen could have a huge role in the back end of the 2012 bullpen.

Grade: A

RHP Jon Rauch (33)
5-4, 52 IP, 56 H, 28 ER, 11 HR, 14 BB, 36 K
4.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 2.57 K/BB, 6.23 K/9, 0.66 GO/AO

When you look at John Rauch in a baseball uniform, you expect he blows hitters away without breaking a sweat. Rauch stands 6'10" tall and weighs 290 lbs, yet his fastball averaged only 89.5 mph in 2011. Not only does it show below average velocity but the fastball is flat, which is borderline incomprehensible given Rauch's height. With such long arms and a downward plane to the plate, Rauch should live at the bottom of the plate. He didn't, which resulted in an awful GO/AO ratio and a ton of home runs. His struggles were even more glaring given that he spent most of the year working in the back end of the bullpen.

Grade: D

LHP Luis Perez (26)
3-3, 65 IP, 74 H, 37 ER, 9 HR, 27 BB, 54 K
5.12 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 2.00 K/BB, 7.48 K/9, 2.27 GO/AO

Perez' above pitching line does not justify how strong of a season he had before imploding in September. Entering September, Perez had a 3.29 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 45 strikeouts in 54.2 innings, but two bad games in the first week of the month will tarnish what was otherwise an excellent rookie season. Perez was hugely effective against lefties for much of the year, and could find himself in a Marc Rzepczynski-esque late inning role next season.

Grade: B-

RHP Carlos Villanueva (27)
6-4, 107 IP, 103 H, 48 ER, 11 HR, 32 BB, 68 K
4.04 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.13 K/BB, 5.72 K/9, 0.70 GO/AO

Villanueva was easily the most versatile arm on Toronto's roster this year, and if not for a case of over-working during the summer he would have far more impressive numbers. He was dynamic as a reliever, putting together a 1.60 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 26 strikeouts in 20 relief appearances (33.2 IP). He was moved to the rotation in late May and pitched well for a few starts before his effectiveness clearly began to drop off. Despite the clearly looming implosion on its way, Villanueva was left in the rotation until his August 3rd start in which he allowed 8 runs in 2.2 innings. After the start, he was unsurprisingly placed on the 15 day DL with arm soreness, as I predicted in this post on July 23rd. Regardless, I place the blame for his implosion solely on the coaching staff for their short sightedness -- as a reliever, Villanueva was very effective.

Grade: B+

RHP Jesse Litsch (26)
6-3, 75 IP, 69 H, 37 ER, 10 HR, 28 BB, 66 K
4.44 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.36 K/BB, 7.92 K/9, 1.25 GO/AO

I have never been a fan of Jesse Litsch as a starter, but I was pleasantly surprised at what I saw from Litsch out of the bullpen late this season. In the shorter appearances Litsch was able to go for the strikeout more effectively while managing to retain his strong groundball rate. He didn't display a velocity spike while working as a reliever, but it's possible that an offseason with workouts focused more on strength than endurance could boost his four seam fastball up to the 90-92 mph range more consistently.

Grade: B

RHP Shawn Camp (35)
6-3, 66.1 IP, 79 H, 31 ER, 3 HR, 22 BB, 32 K
4.21 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 1.45 K/BB, 4.34 K/9, 1.83 GO/AO

After a strong spring, Shawn Camp's season took a horrific twist and made me start wondering aloud whether or not he had anything left in the tank. After putting together a 2.42 ERA and 1.15 WHIP through April and May, Camp completely unravelled through the summer. His 6.75 ERA, 2.05 WHIP and 14-13 K/BB ratio from June through August -- often in crucial, late game situations -- left a sour taste in my mouth. Camper has never been a big strikeout guy, but his strikeout rate has now fallen for 5 consecutive seasons (8.10, 7.09, 6.55, 5.72, 4.34), reaching what I consider an unacceptable level. His groundball rate is still impressive so it's possible Camp could rebound next season in lower leverage situations -- perhaps as the 6th or 7th arm -- but those are normally roles reserved for converted starters or young pitchers, not veterans with over 400 career appearances under his belt.

Grade: D

RHP Joel Carreno (24)
1-0, 15.2 IP, 11 H, 2 ER, 1 HR, 4 BB, 14 K
1.15 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 3.50 K/BB, 8.04 K/9, 1.50 GO/AO

Carreno did everything that was asked of him and more after earning a late season callup from Double-A. Originally deployed as a long-man during Dustin McGowan's starts, Carreno developed into much more in his one month in the big leagues. Using primarily a fastball-slider mix, Carreno gets plenty of strikeouts and groundballs, the two things you want from a late inning reliever. While his walk rate looks good, it's likely a small sample size issue and more walks could come as more hitters see him and learn to hold back.

Grade: A

RHP Chad Beck (26)
0-0, 2.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 0 BB, 3 K
0.00 ERA, 0.43 WHIP, 3/0 K/BB, 11.57 K/9, 1.00 GO/AO

While Chad Beck falls short of the 10 appearance minimum to make this list, I felt compelled to include him as he could spend a significant amount of time in the major league bullpen next season. In addition to having a similar build, Beck's repetoire is similar to that of Frank Francisco, as he features a mid-to-high 90's four-seam fastball and a mid 80's splitter with some late bite. Beck made only 3 appearances, but looked major league ready.

Grade: B

Monday, October 3, 2011

Making the Grade: The Starters


The first segment of "Making the Grade" will be Toronto's starting pitchers. While we saw a large number of different pitchers make starts throughout the year, this list will be exclusively for pitchers who either finished the season in the starting rotation, or made more starts than relief appearances throughout the duration of the season.

Part II Making the Grade: The Bullpen
Part III Making the Grade: The Infield
Part IV Making the Grade: The Outfield

LHP Ricky Romero (26)
15-11, 225 IP, 176 H, 73 ER, 26 HR, 80 BB, 178 K
2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 2.23 K/BB, 7.12 K/9, 1.79 GO/AO

For the second consecutive offseason, Toronto traded their previous years' Opening Day starter, which forced Romero directly into the spotlight as the new ace of the staff. Ricky stepped up to the challenge being laid down, posting careers bests in innings pitched, ERA, and walks per nine. Romero fully embraced the ace mantra, as he sacrificed strikeouts in an effort to go deeper into ball games (2010: 15.3 pitches per inning, 2011: 14.9 pitches per innning). In addition to throwing more 2-seam fastballs, Romero also threw harder than ever before, with his fastball averaging 92.0 mph in 2011 after averaging 90.9 mph in 2010. The only thing holding him back from an A+ grade are home runs allowed, where Romero's 26 were tied for 4th in the AL.

Grade: A

RHP Brandon Morrow (27)
11-11, 179.1 IP, 162 H, 94 ER, 21 HR, 69 BB, 203 K
4.72 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.94 K/BB, 10.19 K/9, 0.71 GO/AO

To say that expectation were high for Brandon Morrow entering 2011 would be a colossal understatement. After putting together a 3.69 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in the second half of 2010, it was thought Morrow was ready to take the next step into ace-dome and help Ricky Romero lead this pitching staff into the future. While Romero took the step forward, Morrow stumbled out of the starting block (5.51 ERA, 1.56 WHIP in May after making only 2 April starts) and was never able to fully recover. The three positives to come from Morrow's season were his health, the development of a cutter late in the season as well as an improvement in command (2010: 4.06 BB/9, 2011: 3.46 BB/9), which kept him from a failing grade.

Grade: C

LHP Brett Cecil (25)
4-11, 123.2 IP, 122 H, 65 ER, 22 HR, 42 BB, 87 K
4.73 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.07 K/BB, 6.33 K/9, 0.81 GO/AO

While the W/L record and ERA look bad, Cecil's 2011 season wasn't that different than his breakout 2010 season. His strikeout rate improved, while his walk and groundball rates declined slightly. The biggest difference was a spiked home run rate (2010: 8.7% HR/FB, 2011: 13.3% HR/FB), which was likely the result of a decline in average fastball velocity (2010: 90.1 mph, 2011: 88.5 mph). Cecil has put on 10-15 lbs since being drafted, so it is possible the dip in velocity is related to a lack of conditioning on Cecil's part. Cecil did not do enough in 2011 to guarantee a rotation spot entering next season, so hopefully he will take offseason workouts more seriously this time around.

Grade: C-

RHP Henderson Alvarez (21)
1-3, 63.2 IP, 64 H, 25 ER, 8 HR, 8 BB, 40 K
3.53 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 5.00 K/BB, 5.65 K/9, 1.75 GO/AO

Henderson Alvarez has almost everything you want in a pitching prospect. Despite being plucked from the minor leagues at the ripe age of 21, he showed no fear in facing major league hitters, carving up lineups with command (1.13 BB/9) that hasn't been seen in Toronto since Roy Halladay left town. Alvarez works primarily off his heavy 92-95 mph fastball (averaged 93.3 mph), throwing it 71.8% of the time. His changeup came as advertised, while his slider looked surprisingly good given how sparingly he throws it. His one victory in ten starts should ashame the Blue Jays offense, as Hendo was the 2nd best pitcher on the team over the last two months of the season. The only issue with Hendo is the lack of strikeouts, as pitchers with stuff like him should not have a sub-6 K/9.

Grade: A-

RHP Dustin McGowan (29)
0-2, 21 IP, 20 H, 15 ER, 4 HR, 13 BB, 20 K
6.43 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 1.54 K/BB, 8.57 K/9, 1.47 GO/AO

The fact that McGowan has returned to the big leagues at all is a victory in and of itself, and as such expectations should be grounded. After missing nearly three full seasons due to a variety of injuries, McGowan managed to pitch quite well in his return. The walk rate was high, but given that command is always the last thing to return after coming back from serious arm injuries, it's unsurprising. The biggest positive for McGowan was that he maintained his strong repetoire despite the layoff. His fastball averaged 93.0 mph, and his power slider clocked in with an 86.9 mph average.

Grade: B+

RHP Kyle Drabek (23)
4-5, 78.2 IP, 87 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 55 BB, 51 K
6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP, 0.93 K/BB, 5.83 K/9, 1.22 GO/AO

It's extremely difficult to say anything positive about Kyle Drabek's season. Plain and simply, he shit the bed. At the time of his demotion he led all of baseball in walks, and was one of the few pitchers with fewer strikeouts than walks. In addition to losing any semblance of command, he got hit around, and his .310 BABIP suggests hitters weren't getting lucky -- they were driving balls. Drbaek was demoted to Triple-A in June and actually pitched worse in the minor leagues. Experts are flabbergasted at Drabek's implosion, and it can only be hoped that four months away from pitching and a clean slate to start 2012 will be the cure to what ails him.

Grade: F